Democrats in Oregon went into the 2022 redistricting cycle looking to lock in their advantage in the state, drawing the 5th district with a distinct Democrat advantage (Biden +8). On top of that, Republicans faced a very noisy governor's race sucking up money and attention, and a Democratic nominee who was a progressive darling and ended up raising over $3.6 million for her campaign.
In order to overcome the Democratic advantage in the district, the Chavez-DeRemer campaign focused relentlessly on Lori's background and accomplishments as mayor. The campaign also established the Democrat, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, as too extreme for the district. Message testing showed that Chavez-DeRemer's common sense accomplishments on education and paying off the city's debts early increased her favorability and moved voters towards supporting her. Conversely, McLeod-Skinner's positions to the left of Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi caused independents and soft Democrats to reconsider their support of the Democrat nominee.
With Congresswoman Chavez-DeRemer's strong ground game and relentless message discipline working in tandem, she was able to win a narrow, but clear, victory over her opponent in a district designed to elect a Democrat.